Edwards and Stewart: Have at it in the season-finale
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11/16/2011 - Homestead, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, November 20. Race: Ford 400. Site: Homestead-Miami Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile oval. Start time: 3:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 267. Miles: 400.5. 2010 Winner: Carl Edwards. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.
Three-two-one.
No, we're not doing the countdown for a rocket launch.
It's the point separation between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart heading into the Sprint Cup Series season-finale on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Edwards currently holds a three-point lead over Stewart. They are the only drivers who remain in championship contention.
With a newer and simpler scoring format this year, Edwards' present lead over Stewart roughly translates to 13 points under the previous points system. That makes it the slimmest margin between the top-two drivers going into the final race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup since NASCAR began its playoff format for its premier series in 2004. It's also the third-closest separation since the inception of the position-based points structure in 1975.
Last year, Denny Hamlin held a 15-point lead over Jimmie Johnson when the series arrived at Homestead, which was the closest margin in the Chase finale. Johnson's second-place finish compared to a 14th-place run for Hamlin allowed Johnson to clinch his record-extending fifth straight Sprint Cup championship by a 39-point margin.
Edwards and Stewart have been duking it out in the last two races.
Earlier this month, Stewart won at Texas and moved to within three points of Edwards, who finished second there. The points margin between the two remained the same after Edwards placed second and Stewart third at Phoenix.
"It's fun when we're first and second in the points. and we're running first and second on the racetrack the last two weeks," Stewart said. "It shows why we're both in this position.
"We just got to keep doing what we're doing. We got to keep the pressure on. Two weeks in a row we've led the most laps, and I'm really proud of that. Proud of the pressure we're putting on him. A lot can happen in 400 miles [at Homestead]."
Edwards has finished no worse than 11th in the Chase so far this year. He took over the points lead after Kansas -- the fourth race in the playoffs -- and has remained atop the standings since then.
After winning the first two Chase races -- Chicagoland and New Hampshire -- Stewart lost his momentum by finishing 25th at Dover and then 15th at Kansas. He had dropped to seventh in the point standings. But Stewart has steadily bounced back since then, scoring five straight top-10 finishes, including victories at Martinsville and Texas.
"It's neat to me that Tony and the guys on the 14 are running so well, won so many races and performing on a high level," Edwards said. "It's going to mean more if we're able to beat them in this championship because of that, to beat Tony and those guys at their peak.
"I can truthfully say this is the best Chase we've ever had. We haven't gone out and got the trophies that we have in other Chases, but we've performed better than we ever have. If they're beating us, they're beating us at our best, and I think that's pretty neat."
If Edwards wins at Homestead, he will be guaranteed of his first Sprint Cup championship. Edwards has two victories at this track -- 2008 and 2010. He also has an average finish of 5.7 in seven races here.
"Homestead is going to be a lot of fun," he said. "I really enjoy racing there. The cool thing about Homestead, you're going to be able to move around, pass and not get hung up as badly in traffic as you can at other racetracks. For the sport in general, I don't think there's a better place to go than Homestead to fight for this championship."
Stewart won the first two Cup races at Homestead from 1999-2000, when the racetrack had a flat, rectangular configuration based on Indianapolis Motor Speedway's layout. Homestead, a 1.5-mile track, was reconfigured in 2003, with banking in the turns increased variably to 18-20 degrees.
Stewart's average finish at Homestead is 12.4. He is one of four active drivers in the series that has competed in all 12 races here.
"I like Homestead," he said. "It's a place that we had a lot of success when it was flat. We haven't got that win with it banked. I like the way that track races right now."
Stewart is attempting to win his third series championship. He won it in 2002 and '05. If Stewart clinches the title this weekend, he would join David Pearson, Lee Petty, Darrell Waltrip and Cale Yarborough as the drivers with three championships. He would also become just the second driver and owner titleholder. Alan Kulwicki accomplished the feat first in 1992.
"It's just about getting four more points than he does; that's all that matters," Stewart said.
Stewart does have one advantage over Edwards in the title fight right now. If the two were to end up in a points tie after Homestead, Stewart would be awarded the championship based on his four wins this season -- all of them coming in the Chase. Edwards has only one win for the season, which came in March at Las Vegas, a track similar to Homestead.
Three-two-one. Who wants it the most?
"There would be nothing better than coming down the last lap side-by-side racing for the win; that would be really fun," Edwards said.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.