Rebels and Pokes duke it out in Mountain West showdown
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
02/04/2012 - Laramie, WY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tied with San Diego State atop the Mountain West Conference standings, the 11th-ranked UNLV Runnin' Rebels are again out on the road this afternoon as they tangle with the Wyoming Cowboys at Arena Auditorium in Laramie.
The Rebels, off to their best start in a generation, had their issues in the first half against Colorado State in the most recent outing on Wednesday night, but after 40 minutes it was clear that UNLV was the better team as it cruised to the 82-63 win at home. The victory was the fifth in a row and the 12th in the last 13 games for the Rebels, who have lost only to San Diego State on the road on a last-second shot during that stretch.
As for the Cowboys, they continue to play in the shadows of the big boys in the MWC, even though they've turned in 17 wins in 22 games already. However, the last couple of weeks have been a bit pressing for the Pokes with two losses in the last three outings, the lone win coming against Boise State (75-64), which is still winless in the MWC. Three nights ago, Wyoming dropped to 3-3 in league play with a 58-52 loss at TCU.
The Rebels, who will host the Cowboys in Las Vegas next month, have dominated the all-time series with a 28-14 advantage, thanks in part to a 90-77 win in the most recent meeting last season at the Thomas & Mack Center.
UNLV trailed by seven points in the first half against visiting Colorado State at home a few nights back, but then the hosts came alive and eventually shot 59.4 percent from the field in the first half to give themselves a cushion at the break. Except for Brice Massamba who finished with just four points, every starter scored in double figures for the Rebels, beginning with Chace Stanback and Oscar Bellfield who both tallied 16 points, followed by Mike Moser and Anthony Marshall with 13 apiece. Moser, who pulled down a team-best eight rebounds, failed to register a double-double due to the fact that he dealt with early foul trouble and had to take a seat on the bench. Nevertheless, Moser is still one of the nation's leaders on the glass with his 11.6 rpg and is also first on the team with his 14.7 ppg, although Stanback has closed the gap slightly and is now putting up 14.2 ppg. Marshall (11.8 ppg) has teamed with Bellfield (9.7 ppg) to deliver a collective 241 assists which makes it so tough for defenders to handle both players and their passing abilities.
The staunch Wyoming defense was a bit lax against the Horned Frogs in the latest outing, allowing the hosts to make good on 57.1 percent from the field in the first half, giving TCU enough of an advantage to ride out the second half at Daniel-Meyer Coliseum in Fort Worth. Nevertheless, Leonard Washington still posted a game-high 21 points for the visitors, followed by Adam Waddell and Francisco Cruz with 13 and 10 points, but even that was not enough to offset the awful 2-of-12 shooting performance behind the three-point line by Luke Martinez. Washington, the team's leading scorer in three of the last four contests, has boosted his season average of 13.1 ppg up to 17.2 ppg versus the rest of the MWC and yet the team as a whole is posting just 60.8 ppg in league tests which is almost five points per game under their season average. The same goes with the defense for the Pokes which, overall this year has limited opponents to 53.8 ppg, but MWC foes have managed to put up 58.3 ppg which makes the team's scoring margin that much smaller.
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sharing the top spot in the Mountain West Conference standings with 11th-ranked UNLV, the 17th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs try to keep moving in the right direction tonight as they host the TCU Horned Frogs at
<< OVC action features 10th-ranked Racers at Skyhawks
Martin, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 10th-ranked Murray State Racers will try to
remain the only unbeaten team in Division I as they head to Skyhawk Arena for
an Ohio Valley Conference battle with the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks.
This will be the
<< Top-ranked Wildcats collide with Gamecocks in Columbia
Columbia, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams at opposite ends of the SEC spectrum
meet up in Columbia this evening, as the top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats take on
the South Carolina Gamecocks at the Colonial Life Center.
John Calipari's Wildcats h
<< No.5 UNC takes on Maryland in College Park
College Park, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fifth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels
play their fourth road game in the last six outings, as they head to College
Park for an ACC showdown with the Maryland Terrapins.
Roy Williams' Tar Heels are sitt
<< Irish set sights on Golden Eagles
South Bend, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 15th-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles
continue their push towards the top of the Big East standings, as the begin a
two-game road trip this afternoon, taking on a dangerous Notre Dame team at
the Joyce Center
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked Syracuse Orange square off with the St. John's Red Storm this afternoon in a Big East Conference clash from New York's famed Madison Square Garden. Syracuse has won 22 of its first 23 games t
Top-25 foes tangle in Tallahassee >>
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of top-25 teams meet up in
Tallahassee this afternoon, as the 21st-ranked Florida State Seminoles and
16th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers take care of some ACC business at the Donald L.
Tucker Center.
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A top-25 SEC showdown on tap in Gainesville >>
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-25 foes collide in Gainesville this
afternoon, as the 12th-ranked Florida Gators play host to the 25th-ranked
Vanderbilt Commodores in an SEC affair at the O'Connell Center.
Billy Donovan's Gators are p
Flyers host Devils in Atlantic Division matchup >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of Atlantic Division rivals will collide this
afternoon in Philadelphia, as the Flyers welcome the New Jersey Devils for a
battle at the Wells Fargo Center.
This marks the fourth of six scheduled tilts between the c
Bulls continue long trip in Milwaukee >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls are in the midst of a nine-game road trip
and will continue the lengthy trek tonight against the Central Division-rival
Milwaukee Bucks at the Bradley Center.
The Bulls improved to 2-2 thus far on th
Terrell Owens could return for Cowboys next game
A bye week will allow Terrell Owens broken hand to recover just in time for the next game the Dallas Cowboys are slated to play, according to reports. MySportsbook.com, an football sportsbook, has posted football betting lines on TO playing.
Owens broke the bone leading to his right ring finger Sunday night and had a plate surgically attached to it Monday. Although Owens' hand was swollen and aching Wednesday, Dallas Cowboys coach Bill Parcells said he's optimistic the receiver will be back at work next week and catching passes a week from Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.
MySportsbook.com online sportsbook listed Terrell Owens with odds of 7-2 (or $7 paid out for every $2 bet) to return back for the game against Tennessee.
"I certainly wouldn't rule it out now," Parcells said, referring to Terrell Owens immediate return. "Maybe five days from now I might, but I wouldn't rule it out now. ... I know we're looking to try to get him moving around pretty good in the next day or so. So we'll see where we are."
Owens did not speak with reporters Wednesday, but said Sunday he'd be out two to four weeks. A return against the Titans would be 13 days after the surgery. The Cowboys were listed as an early -7 1/2 favorite vs. the Tennessee Titans for Week 4 at MySportsbook.com
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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