Reutimann captures first Cup pole for season-ending Ford 400
Autoracing Betting Lines
11/14/2008 - Homestead, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Reutimann recorded his first career pole in the Sprint Cup Series by taking the top starting spot in Friday's qualifying for the Ford 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. Reutimann, the driver of the No.44 Toyota for Michael Waltrip Racing and a native of Zephyrhills, FL, rounded the 1.5-mile oval in 31.462 seconds (171.636 m.p.h.).
Reutimann's first pole came in his 63rd start. He becomes the fourth first- time pole winner in the series this year, joining Travis Kvapil (Talladega), Paul Menard (Daytona) and Patrick Carpentier (New Hampshire).
"I think we sat on the outside pole at Bristol and came close a couple of other times," Reutimann said. "It feels really good to see the 44 up there, and it shows all of the guys at the shop and on the team that they've been working hard all year long and doing a great job."
Scott Speed, in just his fifth Sprint Cup start, secured the outside pole with a time of 31.494 seconds. Speed and Red Bull Racing teammate Brian Vickers switched rides for this weekend, with Speed moving over to the No.83 Toyota, and Vickers taking the wheel of the No.84 car. Vickers will start 20th.
Roush Fenway Racing teammates Matt Kenseth (31.500) and Carl Edwards (31.502) will start on the second row.
Edwards, currently 141 points behind Jimmie Johnson, will start the season- finale 26 positions ahead of the championship leader.
"That was a good lap for us," Edwards said. "We're not the strongest qualifier, so a lap like that was impressive."
If Johnson finishes 36th or better at Homestead, regardless of Edwards' performance, he will join Cale Yarborough as the only drivers to win three consecutive Cup championships. Yarborough captured his titles from 1976-78.
"The lap was okay, and I felt good about the lap," Johnson said. "Unfortunately, coming to the green flag, I lost a bunch of time and I didn't take the green flag with the speed I needed into those long straightaways. I think I lost most of my time there."
Johnson will start 30th.
Kevin Harvick and David Ragan will make up row three.
Jamie McMurray, Kyle Busch, Reed Sorenson, and Martin Truex, Jr. will start seven through 10th, respectively.
Other notable drivers and their starting positions include: Tony Stewart (13th), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (22nd), Ryan Newman (29th), and Jeff Gordon (37th).
Ken Schrader, Max Papis and Sam Hornish, Jr. did not qualify.
Homestead will mark the end of Stewart's 10-year run with Joe Gibbs Racing as the two-time Cup champion leaves the No.20 Toyota to drive for his own team - Stewart Haas Racing - in 2009.
Newman, the 2008 Daytona 500 winner, will make his final start in the No.12 Dodge as he departs Penske Racing at the end of the season to join Stewart's new team.
Homestead is also one last chance for several drivers to end their season with at least one victory. Most notably is Gordon, who has won a race in 14 consecutive years. However, Gordon has not scored a victory since October 2007 at Charlotte. He has yet to win a Cup race at Homestead, but did take the checkered flag for a Nationwide event there in 2000.
Kenseth and Harvick are also winless this year. Kenseth has won at least one race in the previous six seasons, while Harvick has recorded a victory in the last three years.
The green flag is scheduled to drop Sunday around 3:45 p.m. (et).
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chelsea is co-operating fully with the Football Association and Metropolitan Police after Didier Drogba was charged with violent conduct following an incident in the Blues' Carling Cup defeat to Burn
<< Isles D Pock suspended
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National Hockey League has suspended New
York Islanders defenseman Thomas Pock for five games, without pay, for an
incident that occurred in Thursday's 3-1 victory over the Ottawa Senators.
Pock wa
<< Bears' Orton probable, could start Sunday
Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Bears quarterback Kyle Orton is
listed as probable for Sunday's game against Green Bay, as he continues to
recover from an ankle injury.
Orton, who missed last Sunday's game against Tenn
<< NAC rolls over Heracles to move into first
Breda, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ellery Cairo, Edwin De Graaf and Patrick
Zwaanswijk scored as NAC defeated Heracles 3-0 on Friday at Rat Verlegh Stadion
to move into first place in the Dutch Eredivisie.
NAC entered this week's matches
<< Hannover settles for draw against Bochum
Hannover, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jan Schlaudraff scored his fifth goal but
Hannover handed Bochum a 1-1 draw on an own goal on Friday at AWD-Arena.
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Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Northern Iowa football coach Mark Farley announced Friday that he has suspended starting wide receivers Johnny Gray and Victor Williams indefinitely after the two were arrested on drug charges. The Ceda
Cowboys RB Jones out for Sunday >>
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Cowboys will get quarterback Tony
Romo back for Sunday night's divisional clash with the Washington Redskins,
but running back Felix Jones is still out with a hamstring injury.
Jones has not
NCAA announces women's Final Four sites from 2012-2016 >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NCAA announced Friday the women's
basketball Final Four sites for the years 2012 through 2016, a list that
includes Denver and Nashville.
Denver will host the women's Final Four in 2012,
Bush a no-go against Chiefs >>
Metairie, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush
will not dress for Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Bush, three-plus weeks removed from arthroscopic knee surgery, took limited
reps in practice
Stanford leads Ochoa's tournament by two >>
Guadalajara, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Angela Stanford continued her recent
hot streak with a six-under 66 on Friday that gave her the second-round lead
at the Lorena Ochoa Invitational.
Stanford, on the heels of four consecutive top-fi
Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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